With the presidential election in Afghanistan just a month away, President Barack Obama will soon be confronting a clear referendum on the success of his controversial Afghanistan and Pakistan policy, which is one of the cornerstones of his own presidential legacy. After the allegations of irregularities that plagued the prior election in 2009, it is essential for Obama that these elections be credible. Unfortunately, this week, the Taliban issued a blanket death threat against any Afghan who votes or takes part in the campaign in any way.
This pronouncement should not be taken as an empty threat. Four years ago, both poll workers and polling stations found themselves as targets for direct attacks by the Taliban. Some voters even had their ink-stained index finger cut off as an example to others.
Currently scheduled for April 4, the upcoming election will allow for new leadership in this troubled country. Because of term limits, incumbent Hamid Karzai cannot run again. Two leading candidates, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, are eying an outright victory in the first round of voting. If there is no single candidate with at least 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election will follow.
Afghanistan remains a very dangerous place. The escalating violence in the country now includes attacks on high-profile foreigners. Also this week, Nils Horner, a radio journalist from Sweden, was shot in the head and killed on the streets of Kabul in broad daylight.
Fortunately, someone has figured out a way to try to make a profit from this dire situation. Cavalry and Co., a Miami-based travel agency, is offering clients "the world's most intimidating round of golf." For a mere $80,000, a thrill-seeking golfer will be able to enjoy 18 holes at the 100-year-old Kabul Golf Club. The course is a bit dry and dusty, but the seasoned player will enjoy armed guards in addition to the customary caddy. And if things get a bit too hairy — perhaps some live gunfire, a mortar attack or an improvised explosive device planted near the pin on the 14th green — there is a former Soviet helicopter ready to evacuate the golfer at a moment's notice.
Sounds like jolly good fun!
Obama's legacy in Afghanistan, unfortunately, is no laughing matter. He has threatened to pull all U.S. forces out of the country at the end of the year unless a security agreement is entered into between the governments. Plans are being made for an orderly withdrawal if the stalemate in these crucial negotiations continues. Should an agreement not be reached before the election, it will be Karzai's successor who determines the terms under which American and NATO troops would operate in Afghanistan.
Karzai is clearly making the most of the opportunity to burnish his anti-American credentials during his final days in office. In addition to playing hardball with Obama on the potential for a post-2014 mission, he tweaked a number of noses in Washington by releasing 65 Taliban from a prison at Bagram Air Field, only 20 miles from the capital, in the face of very vocal opposition from the United States. Kabul had just taken over control of the high-security prison one year earlier. In response to the diplomatic outcry, Karzai played the sovereignty card and insisted that the judiciary in Afghanistan — and its decisions — must be respected. A prison spokesman reported that the former prisoners, branded "dangerous individuals" by U.S. officials, were smiling and laughing as they left the facility.
If American troops were to completely withdraw, including those intended to train local security forces, Afghanistan could degenerate into full-scale civil war once again — putting its neighbor Pakistan at risk, as well. After more than a decade of large-scale U.S. commitment to maintain security in Afghanistan, including Obama's personal promise to put his "AfPak policy" at the center of American priorities in the region, a power vacuum after an American retreat would be hugely embarrassing to not just the White House but the United States for many years to come.
A devastating blow to American prestige is difficult to handle even at the very best of times. But given U.S. equivocation over Syria and a situation in Ukraine in which Russian President Vladimir Putin increasingly looks to have gained the upper hand on the future of Crimea, such a blow could come to haunt U.S. foreign policy for a generation.
It is important for both American allies and potential American enemies to believe that Washington will live up to its commitments and see them through to their desired conclusions. An indecisive White House that cuts and runs does not instill either faith or respect across the international community, nor does it boost the confidence of everyday American voters back at home.
Timothy Spangler is a writer and commentator who divides his time between Los Angeles and London. His radio show, "The Bigger Picture with Timothy Spangler," airs every Sunday night from 10 p.m. to midnight Pacific time on KRLA AM 870. To find out more about Timothy Spangler and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.
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