Projecting Home Price Changes

By James Woodard

April 7, 2014 4 min read

One of the most frequent questions asked at this point relates to future home prices. Consumers want to know if this is a strategic time to sell their residences or if the time is right to purchase a home.

The direction taken by home prices in the coming year is a major factor in making those decisions.

Analysts have varying opinions about future home prices, but a consensus of real estate professionals — those who devoted their careers to selling properties — is probably the most reliable source of information about home price trends.

In a recent survey, realtors reported a median price expectation of 3.9 percent over the next 12 months, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The states where practitioners are predicting the biggest increases — 5 to 7 percent — are in California, Florida, Alaska and Hawaii. Tight inventories have helped to lift home values in these areas, says the survey.

"In states with booming economies like Washington, North Dakota, Texas, Michigan, and the D.C. metro area, the expected price increase is about 3 to 5 percent," according to the report. Real estate professionals also expressed several concerns over the housing market holding back some buyers, particularly due to "unreasonably" tight credit conditions.

Access to credit was often cited as a deterrent to homebuying. About 13 percent of realtors who did not close a sale in February reported having clients who could not obtain financing.

In those cases, about 6 percent of the professionals said their buyer gave up, while 7 percent said their buyer continued to seek new or other financing. The survey report noted: Other transaction hang-ups were lack of agreement on a price (accounting for 11 percent); the buyer losing a home to competition (10 percent); and appraisal issues (3 percent).

Q: Are mortgage balances generally increasing?

A: Yes. In fact, the balance of all first mortgages reached its highest figure in two years, totaling $7.97 trillion, according to the latest Equifax national consumer credit trends report.

First mortgages increased 2.8 percent from a year earlier in February, the largest year-over-year uptick since September 2008. Delinquent first mortgages accounted for 5.7 percent of outstanding balances in February, which is down 22 percent from a year earlier.

Meanwhile, the overall balance of first mortgages that are seriously delinquent or in foreclosure is less than $270 billion, Equifax noted in the report. This is a six-year low and was down approximately 27 percent from a year earlier.

Q: Are fixed-mortgage rates rising?

A: At this writing, Freddie Mac shows average fixed-mortgage rates up a bit, applying additional pressure for those local markets that are already feeling an affordability pinch. Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.40 percent, with an average 0.6 points up from last week when it averaged 4.32 percent.

A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.57 percent. Fifteen-year FRM averaged 3.42 percent, with an average 0.6 points up from last week when it averaged 3.32 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.76 percent.

Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist for Freddie Mac, made the following comment: "Mortgage rates rose following the uptick on the 10-year Treasury note after comments by the Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen indicated a possible increase in interest rates as soon as early 2015."

To find out more about Jim Woodard and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.

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