Why Home Sales Are Sluggish

By James Woodard

January 6, 2014 5 min read

In recent weeks, there has been a noticeable drop in home sales in certain areas. This has raised the level of concern of many consumers who think this is a trend that might spark another major downturn in the real estate market.

Most experts say there is no significant threat to the market's slow recovery. The primary reasons for the spotty downturn in home sales were outlined in an article published by the National Association of Realtors, which points to these factors:

—Higher mortgage rates are slowing sales. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is up nearly a full percentage point in the past year, causing homebuyers to face an increase in borrowing costs. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 4.26 percent in November, compared to a 3.35 percent average in November 2012, Freddie Mac reports.

—The Federal Reserve announced that it would begin winding down its bond-buying stimulus program next month, which is expected to result in higher mortgage rates.

—Tight credit is also a factor. New rules defining Qualified Mortgage could leave more borrowers on the sidelines. "New underwriting rules to protect borrowers, effective this month (January), will prohibit many loan features, set tighter limits on the amount of debt a borrower can have and still get a mortgage, and require that lenders accurately measure a borrower's ability to repay," says Steve Brown, president of NAR.

—Constrained inventories in many markets certainly affect sales. Housing inventory in November fell 0.9 percent to 2.09 million existing homes available for sale. The total housing inventory represents a 5.1-month supply at the current sales pace, NAR notes.

—One factor is a shrinking number of distressed homes — foreclosures and short sales. Distressed homes accounted for 14 percent of November sales, compared to 22 percent in November 2012, NAR reports.

Q: Will more mortgage regulatory action be taken in 2014?

A: While Washington does appear to be focused on expanding mortgage credit, Capital Market believes we are entering the beginning of a more aggressive regulatory stance.

"In Washington, 2014 will be the year of the regulator," the firm says in its outlook for the coming year. It notes that while we are likely to see some loosening of credit and some clarity within the market, an air of mystery still surrounds some aspects of the industry.

Q: To what extent are homebuyers paying for their properties with all cash?

A: All-cash purchases accounted for 42 percent of all residential property sales in November, up from 38.8 percent in October and also up from a year ago to the highest level since RealtyTrac began tracking all-cash purchases in January 2011, the company reports.

States with the highest percentage of cash sales included Florida, Georgia, Nevada and South Carolina — where more than half of the homes sold last month were purchased with cash.

Q: Why is title insurance so expensive?

A: I can't think of a logical reason why those premiums are so high. Considering today's development in technology, they should be lower.

However, the industry recently generated still higher profits. Title insurance premium volume rose 14 percent during the third quarter of 2013, compared to the same period a year ago, according to the American Land Title Association.

Based on the national trade group's market share analysis, the title insurance industry generated $3.4 billion in premiums over the July-to-September period, compared to $3.0 billion in the third quarter of 2012.

Q: Is the number of foreclosed homes dropping?

A: The number of homes in foreclosure fell sharply in the third quarter as fewer and fewer borrowers fell behind on their mortgages, according to a recently released report by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, National Mortgage News reports.

More than 91 percent of mortgages were current and performing at the end of the third quarter, compared with 88.6 percent in the same period a year ago. Mortgages that were 60 days or more past due, or more than 30 days past due and held by bankrupt borrowers, fell to 3.6 percent, down from 4.4 percent during the same period in 2012.

To find out more about Jim Woodard and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.

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