According to the FBI, the U.S. murder rate continues to drop precipitously and by year's end could lead to the largest annual decline ever. Violent crime generally is in a free fall. Yet, Americans have become more concerned about violent crime since the election of President Joe Biden.

About 7 out of 10 Republicans list crime reduction as a top political priority, up 13% since 2021. And roughly half of Democrats share the same sentiment — up 8% over the same period, reported the Pew Research Center.

Crime will be an issue this fall, regardless of what the facts suggest. A Gallup poll released last November found that more than 3 out of 4 people said there was more crime in the U.S. in 2023 than in 2022.

Tough on crime has been a staple of presidential politics for the last 60 years.

Crime as a political weapon was introduced in 1964 with Barry Goldwater. The GOP nominee for president introduced the concept of crime as a divisive, fearmongering issue.

When Richard Nixon was making his second bid for president in 1968, the Civil Rights Act had passed, riots had erupted in cities across the country after the murder of Martin Luther King, Jr., and murder rates had increased 50% since 1950.

Race relations were tenuous, at best, and Nixon knew it. Crime control became a surrogate for race control.

During the 1980s, drug laws became more and more onerous. Ronald Reagan introduced draconian mandatory minimum sentences and even harsher drug penalties. For instance, the Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986 created much harsher sentences for the use of crack cocaine, popular in predominately African American urban neighborhoods, as opposed to powder cocaine, popular in more affluent suburbs.

The first George Bush interjected Willie Horton into the 1988 presidential election, blatantly stoking fears of crime and race. In 1992, Bill Clinton turned the table on the GOP flexing his tough-on-crime muscles, departing the campaign trail to oversee an execution in Arkansas as governor and presidential candidate.

When the new crime statistics for the first quarter of 2024 were released last week, United States Attorney General Merrick Garland said, "This continued historic decline in homicides does not represent abstract statistics. It represents people whose lives were saved — people who are still here to see their children grow up, to work toward fulfilling their dreams, and to contribute to their communities."

Auriol Sonia Morris — a South Carolina education, finance and legal consultant who describes herself as a Black conservative Republican and a supporter of former President Donald Trump — told ABC News, "I don't believe it, plain and simple. I don't believe it because we're experiencing different results."

Why do some people ignore the data?

According to CNN, the preliminary figures do come with some limitations. For one, the bureau relies upon data voluntarily submitted by policing agencies, and those agencies have the remainder of the year to audit and correct any reporting errors before final annual figures are published.

Political rhetoric cannot be ignored as a contributing factor. The "bogeyman" in 2024 will be the unauthorized resident immigrant — those persons in the country illegally. Last week, authorities arrested Victor Martinez-Hernandez, in the U.S. illegally from El Salvador, for the horrific 2023 murder of Rachel Morin.

According to The Washington Post, Harford County, Maryland Sheriff Jeff Gahler said at a press conference, "I want to now direct these comments to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and to every member in both chambers of Congress," he said. "American citizens are not safe because of failed immigration policies."

The Democrats are going to be attacked for a "porous" border and the Republicans for the failure to act on meaningful border reform. Whoever gets the most of this election cycle's "bogeyman" may well decide this fall's outcome.

Matthew T. Mangino is of counsel with Luxenberg, Garbett, Kelly & George P.C. His book "The Executioner's Toll, 2010" was released by McFarland Publishing. You can reach him at www.mattmangino.com and follow him on Twitter @MatthewTMangino.

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